Summary: Eli Lilly announced its 2024 revenue expectations of $45 billion, reflecting a 32% year-over-year growth, driven by strong sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound, the first FDA-approved medication for moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and obesity. The company also provided 2025 revenue guidance of $58 billion to $61 billion, fueled by incretin therapies, new product launches, and expanded manufacturing capacity. Despite falling slightly short of previous 2024 projections, Lilly remains optimistic about continued growth, citing progress in production and robust performance across its therapeutic portfolio.
Key Takeaways:
- Strong Sales of Zepbound and Mounjaro: Zepbound, the first FDA-approved treatment for OSA and obesity, alongside Mounjaro, contributed significantly to Lilly’s 2024 Q4 revenue of $13.5 billion.
- Optimistic 2025 Revenue Guidance: Lilly projects 2025 revenue between $58 billion and $61 billion, driven by incretin therapies, new medicines, and expanded manufacturing capacity expected to increase supply by 60%.
- Growth Across Therapeutic Areas: In addition to incretin therapies, Lilly reported strong performance in oncology, immunology, and neuroscience, with non-incretin revenues growing by 20% year-over-year in Q4 2024.
Eli Lilly and Company announced that it expects 2024 full-year worldwide revenue to be approximately $45 billion, which represents growth of 32% compared to the previous year, highlighting strong performance from Zepbound, the first FDA-approved medicationfor adults with moderate-to-severe obstructive sleep apnea and obesity, alongside robust sales of Mounjaro.
The company also shared 2025 revenue guidance, anticipating sales will be between $58 billion and $61 billion.
For Q4 2024, Lilly now expects worldwide revenue to be approximately $13.5 billion, representing growth of 45% compared to Q4 2023. This includes approximately $3.5 billion for Mounjaro and $1.9 billion for Zepbound. In addition to the uptake of Mounjaro and Zepbound, Lilly saw strong performance from its oncology, immunology, and neuroscience medicines in Q4 of 2024.
In total, non-incretin revenue grew by 20% compared to Q4 2023. However, the company’s expected 2024 revenue is $400 million, or about 3%, below the guidance range issued on Oct 30, 2024, as part of the Q3 2024 earnings call.
“While the US incretin market grew 45% compared to the same quarter last year, our previous guidance had anticipated even faster acceleration of growth for the quarter. That, in addition to lower-than-expected channel inventory at year-end, contributed to our Q4 results. We continued to make progress on our manufacturing build-out, and US supply across all doses of tirzepatide was available throughout Q4,” says David A. Ricks, Lilly chair and CEO, in a release. “The rest of our medicines performed within our expectations.”
New Indications Build Momentum
Lilly anticipates revenue growth contributions in 2025 from new Lilly medicines such as Jaypirca, Ebglyss, Omvoh, and Kisunla; approvals of new indications for existing Lilly medicines; launches of Mounjaro in additional worldwide markets, as well as potential launches of new medicines such as imlunestrant for metastatic breast cancer. Incretin market and channel dynamics have been factored into the 2025 revenue guidance range.
“2024 was a pivotal and highly successful year for Lilly, and we expect to continue our momentum in 2025 with strong financial and operational performance,” continues Ricks in a release. “Sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound posted robust sales growth in Q4, and we expect a continuation of that trend into 2025. We’ll also bring additional manufacturing capacity online and expect to produce at least 60% more salable doses of incretins in the first half of the year compared to the first half of 2024.”
The company currently plans to share its full Q4 2024 financial results, including with respect to other metrics included in its financial guidance, and 2025 financial guidance on Feb 6, 2025.
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